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17-11-2016
The US military maneuvers in the Korean Peninsula must immediately be resisted by the Indonesia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and political and security stakeholders
Author : Hendrajit, Geopolitical analyst of the Global Future Institute (GFI)

One of the statements made by Hendrajit, Executive Director of the Global Future Institute (GFI) in a meeting of experts entitled: Maritime Axis Diplomacy, Maritime Security in the Perspective of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on 10 November 2016, at the Bogor's Salak Hotel wast that the Duterte's move closer to China was actually on the direction of the Democratic scheme by assuming Hillary would win. Democrats intended to build a hegemonic relationship between US and China. If not both could obtain nothing in Southeast Asia.


But suddenly Donald Trum could win the race, thereby potentially damaging the US-China partnership scenario on the basis of the Democratic scheme.

Initially Duterte would be played as if he decided to turn away from the US and be closer to China. Whereas in the scenario of Obama and Hillary Clinton, the Duterte's move closer to China was actually as the Washington courier as if his move was closer to China. Whereas he was a courier for the opening of a new round of US-China cooperation, based on the Democratic scheme having been applying the Asymmetric model or in the Hillary Clinton's jargon, Smart Power, as effort to carry out the geopolitical conquest against the target countries in the developing countries.

But the Democratic idea of ​​the US-China hegemonic partnership would work with the assumption that Hillary was the US presidential winner, to continue the scheme drawn up by President Obama who is also equally from the Democratic party. Instead of Donald Trump, who in addition to coming from the Republic party, most likely his foreign policy has still been influenced with the blueprint drawn up by the individuals of former President George W. Bush.

Now the fact is that Donald Trump was winning, so the most likely the Democratic scheme by using Duterte to move closer to China, will be put aside.

The Trump's foreign policy is prpbably based on a Project New American Centuries (PNAC) formulated by the NEO-Con drafters behind the victory of George W. Bush (2000-2008).

So, even if Trump will not overtly refer to the PNAC, apparently we can already imagine a possible escalated situation in the South China Sea. Because one of the goals behind the PNAC is affirming that both China and Russia are the US potential enemies.

Thus, I reminded the participant of the scholarly meeting to be alert and pay close attention to US plans to develop the Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICMB) in South Korea, ostensibly to offset the North Korean ICBM launched some time ago.

If this is done by the US, then China will surely be provoked to improve its military escalation and aggression, including in the naval to face the US military presence on the Korean Peninsula.

On this stand, the US plans to develop the ICBM in South Korea, should be read a pretext to increase its military presence on the Korean Peninsula.

That is why through the forum, I felt the need to remind the possibility of the US in shifting its priorities and agenda following the Trump's victory. And one of them is that the US ICBM development plan in South Korea in the Obama's administration seemed retractable and deferred or delayed given the Democratic stand tending to use Asymmetric attacks, and in the Trump's era it might even be used as one of the prioritized projects by the Pentagon.

So, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the House, especially Commission I must take preventive measures so that the US intention to potentially heat the situation on the Korean Peninsula that could spread to the South China Sea, could be warded off as early as possible. Because when the US military maneuvers in South Korea are carried out, it will trigger the China's military response and could thereby potentially threaten the President Jokowi's World Maritime Fulcrum conception.

As we know, the conception proclaimed by President Jokowi at the East Asia Summit in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, on November 2014 was basically a change of the focus on development orientation from land to sea.

However, the President Jokowi's conception could only run smoothly in accordance with its scheme and basic strategy due to a conducive environment as well as security and stability in Southeast Asia in particular and Asia Pacific in general. Therefore, the US plans to develop ICBM in South Korea, should be resisted and rejected as early as possible.



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