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Politics
14-03-2017
By: Lieutenant General (Ret) Soedibyo *)
The Impact of the legal court of Ahok to the Political Situation

The final result of the First Round of the Regional Election of  Jakarta.

On Sunday  February 26,  2017 the official result of the ballot of the First Round of the Regional Election of Jakarta was released and likely  the result of the Real Count done by The Regional Election Commission are not much different to the result of the Quick Count done by various Political Researchers released one day after the ballot on February 15, 2017. The first position is the same occupied by Ahok-Djarot Saiful Hidayat (with 2.364.577 around 42,5%), the Second position is achieved by Anies-Sandiaga Uno (with 2.197.333 around 40%) and the third rank is Agus –SylviaMurni (with 937.955 around 17,5%). Likely the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta would be held officially in Jakarta on  April 19,  2017 to elect the Governor and Vice Governor of  Jakarta for the period of 2017-2022 based on those achievement of the result of the ballot. The different achievement of Ahok- Djarot and Anies-Sandi is very narrow  167.244 voters or around 2.5%. There were 5.499.865 valid voters and 64.448 invalid  voters in the ballot of February 15, 2017.


This article  is intended  to  revise  the report concerning the possible prospect of the Regional Election of Jakarta composed to be based on the Quick count of the ballot held on February 15, 2017  in relation to the political situation in Jakarta.

Observation and Consideration

According  to the result of the first round of the Regional Election of Jakarta, it is definitely the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta will be the political rivalry between the pair of Ahok-Djarot Saiful Hidayat against Anies-Sandiaga Uno based on their record in the first round of The Regional Election of Jakarta on February 15, 2017 as presented above . This means assuming that their respective voters on first round do not change their struggle is to grasp around 937.955 voters or around 17,5 % of voters derived from the former voters of Agus – Sylvia in the first round as the independent voters that both Ahok-Djarot Saiful Hidayat and Anies-Sandiaga Uno would compete to attract them respectively.

 

  
Sources : Google

Likely in general the opinion of the People of Jakarta are considering that they are going to continue  the technical political competition  to decide who will be the Winner of the second round of the Regional Election which  would be  considered whom will become The Governor and the Vice Governor of Jakarta for the period of 2017-2022.
The basic idea of the People of Jakarta is theoretically correct though it is not totally true because the technical Political  Competition  in the ballot day of the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta will be actually “the political fighting of two Governor candidates and their respective Vice Governors candidate that will just to grasp around 937.955 voters  or 17,5 % of independent voters of the former voters of Agus-Silvy” in their respective effort  to gain  “50 % plus 1 of voters”.

However the second round of Regional Election of Jakarta is definitely considered as the important political competition because of the significant warm political temperature affected by  a number of significant reasons that have been popularly circulated widely among the political community and their analysis on the prospect of the ballot.

The ballot that likely will be conducted on April 19, 2017 will be  an eminent Regional Election because of  :
The political fighting between Anies-Sandiaga Uno supported by the Gerindra Party, the Social Justice Party, likely PAN, and a number of members of PPP party who are trying to topple Ahok-Djarot the present strong Governor and Vice Governor of Jakarta supported by PDI-P, NASDEM, Hanura, Golkar Party, a group of the PPPmembers and PKPI (The Indonesian Unity and Justice Party) under the leadership of Hendropriyono , all of these are the Political Parties  supporting President Jokowi Cabinet . PAN is the only political party supporting President Jokowi Cabinert, but it does not support Ahok.  PAN strongly opposed Ahok  who is considered as non-loyal political Party cadre and  now Ahok is considered as the undeclared member of PDI-P that  will be the partner of President Jokowi in the Presidential Election of 2019. PKB will make its choice soon before the second round of the Regional Election of the Province of Jakarta to be implemented. Because of this assessment people tend to consider  the Regional Election of Jakarta 2017 is definitely important as the preparation of the political rivalry  in facing the Presidential Election of 2019.

Ahok-Djarot against Anies-Sandiaga  will likely neck to neck since they have only very narrow difference of vote achievement  of 167.244 voters or 2.5 % of all valid voters in the ballot of February 15, 2017.

Democratic Party, PAN  and PPP had not yet make their respective choice and ten of thousands of the Volunteer  the former supporters of Agus - Silvy are still uncertain. It is indicated they tend  yo support To compensate the uncertain situation they tried to attract the voters with spectacular promises and last but not least  also hoax to discredit each others.

This general political situation has been definitely influenced by a number of political development following the political situation  happened in the beginning of the year of 2017 mainly Ahok Gate and  the legal confrontation between Antasari and former President SBY which are said committing to the important  interest of  President Jokowi Palace. Ahok Gate as the political movement   of 93 members of the House of thr Representatives and four Political Partie.s factions to discredit Presient Jokowi and eventually to pull out the political trust/approval of the House of the Representatives presented to him in the beginning of his term as the President.

Ahok Gate likely will be rejected by the Plenum Meeting of the Houe of the Representatives, because the majority members of the House  are the members of the Political Parties which are supporting the Cabinet.

Unfortunately the image of President Jokowi as the protector of Ahok is definitely clear because President Jokowi  is showing his sympathetic attitude to Ahok such  as inviting Ahok sitting together in President’ car and asking Ahok to join President Jokowi to meet on King Salman when the King arrived the Bogor Palace.

Citizens of Jakarta are expected to decide who will anyone of the Governor candidates to be granted the “50% plus 1” in the second round. Clearly this political fighting is potential to make the increasing political temperature because Ahok-Djarot is supported by almost all of the political parties supporting Presidet Jokowi Cabinet under the influence of PDI-P Party. Now undeclared campaign has been started with the hoax slogan describing the success of Ahok – Djarot as the present Governor and the sweet offerings of Anies-Sandiaga as the challenge Candidate.

Now people are discussing the campaign issue of Anies-Sandiaga who promised to establish the procurement system of residential homes with zero percent of advance payment and Ahok-Djarot are opposing Anies-Sandiaga promise and accusing  Anies-Sandiaga  promise is just illusion. The pair of Anies-Sandiaga is also offering the nice development of Jakarta withoutAncol reclamation project and a fearing Governor leadership.

Aside of to present sensitive information about the  political issues recently this article is also intended to remind the people that may be the unexpected irruption of un anticipated  problems could happen and to change the expected scenario of the political development in approaching the ballot day in the framework of the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta. The  last political and security issue is likely the story of the legal court of Ahok who is accused insulting the Islamic  religion  that is likely vulnerable for the unexpected movement of the dissatisfied group of people.

The mass demonstration of a group of people coming to the House of the Representatives on February 21  popularly called 212 mass action among others lead by Habib Rizieg demanding the decision of the Government to re-activate Ahok as the Governor to be deleted is the indication Ahok is totally wanted to be totally out from the Indonesian power politics and the radical movement to dismiss Ahok is eminent political and security threat that will  arise soon.

It is likely necessary to note that the legal court of Ahok on the case of  Insulting the Islamic Religion is still on the move and it is not known when the final court will be conducted by the Council of Judges to decide the punishment for Ahok. Until now it has been the 11 th Session to be held but no indication when the final session will be conducted.

This sensitive, serious and crucial problem should be anticipated because whether we like it or not the serious, sensitive and crucial situation will likely happen. Those group of masses coming to the House of Representatives definitely could not intervene the legal process to influence the Council of Judges but there is strong indication those masses are strongly willing Ahok to be punished  significantly and his political right is dismissed. The objective is clear to throw away Ahok from the Indonesian political life.

Accordingly the Observers tend to suggest all the Political Power  should concern to anticipate this serious, sensitive and crucial situation because after the punishment for Ahok  is announced by the Council of Judges definitely Ahok is clearly demanded to have no more political right. It should be anticipated the around tent thousand of masses who were coming to the House of the Representatives on February 12, 2017 are only a part of the masses to have the similar demand. This mean a bigger mass action should be  anticipated.

Conclusion.

In general in term of the political activities of the group of Ahok-Djarot and the group of Anies-Sandiaga in their effort to get voters of  “50% plus 1”  in the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta it is  likely to have moved  in normal procedure   as the State Agenda.

In term of choice the political attitude of around 2.364.577 or 42,5 % of voters gained by Ahok-Djarot and the  2.194.333 or  40 % of voters gained by Anies-Sandiaga in the first round of the Regional Election of Jakarta will be  likely no change.

However since the rest of 937.355 or  17,5 % of voters as the former supporters of Agus-Silvy are no more organized firmly their choice will be likely free and open for the political move of Ahok-Djarot group to influence them. This is definitely considered as the vulnerable condition for Anies-Sandiaga accordingly Anies-Sandiaga would definitely work hardly to counter the political activities of Ahok-Djarot group. Djarot has commented Ahok is facing difficult situation.

Definitely all the national element should  concern and also anticipate the impact of this rivalry. Especially  the anticipation of the crucial situation caused by the decision of the Council of Judges upon Ahok who is accused  insulting  Islamic Religion should likely be made . Clearly a big group of masses expect Ahok should be thrown away from the Indonesian  political life. The crucial moment is because  whatever the decision by the Council of Judges given the political conflict among political figures and groups  will likely  happen.

This is to end the temporary Observation on the Situation approaching The Second Round of the Regional Election of Jakarta probably on the third week of April 19,  2017 as hypothetical  prediction expected to be useful for further watching and controlling the country.

*) Written by Political Party and Security Observer. Lives in Jakarta.




 

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